Epochal Shift - 6000 Years After Urban Centres Emerged

Epochal Shift - 6000 years after urban centers emerged. This population shift will lead to a new kind of city - "Hyper cities".
At times, what I feel that policy makers have significant problems in understanding data. Data itself is never clear unless we have sufficient ‘knowledge’ to understand this. Especially in Indian scenario, I can say with guarantee that this problem is very common. We have been very poor to appreciate the data properly.
One United Nations estimate says that urban population is expected to overtake the rural population by August 16, 2008. I remember predicting similar ideas in my book “Unlearn Before U-learn” written around a year ago with the detailed justifications which I observed to be very obvious one. The matter does not end here. By 2030, two third of humanity will live in cities. Keeping these changes and statistics in mind, I had advised my rural friends to unlearn village life. The data are becoming true with reality.
Civilization has witnessed tremendous changes in almost every aspect including GDP and employment. There have been tremendous changes in different sectors in the last few decades and these are going to change further impacting transactions. Invariably, there is a large difference in the understanding of facts by policy makers. This results in wrong policy decisions. They are unable to give emphasis to correct approaches. This can be seen in the following example. There are three major sectors –
(a) Primary Sector – Agriculture

(b) Secondary Sector – Industries

(c) Tertiary Sectors – Services including knowledge, information and value-added. This also includes innovative knowledge intensive products/services.

Figure:- EFFECT FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS (In %)

Sectors/Year
1979 2004 2020
GDP Contribution
Agriculture
39 22 10
Industry
24 27 30
Services
37 51 60
Employment Generation

Agriculture
64 54 44
Industry
16 19 21
Services
20 27 35

(courtesy www.presidentofindia.nic.in)

As technology leads to non-linear business growth, the predicted value for the year 2020 may not be totally correct. I feel that it will be different because of many social compulsions. Even if the prediction is assumed to be correct, there is a drastic need to change the orientation of thinking because of the following illustrated reasons–

1. As the agriculture contribution is going to be less than 10% of the overall GDP of the country, the agriculture sector needs to be made attractive, competitive and friendly. Accordingly, the priorities of the planner and thinker have to change.
2. As employment from the agricultural sector is going down drastically from 64% to 44%, the majority should move from conventional locations and profession to new opportunities in value-added services for innovation and knowledge-intensive products. Policy makers are afraid to accept the facts of this data.
3. The people working in the agricultural sector have been traditionally very conservative and rigid in their approach to life; they need to be encouraged to change their profession for the betterment of themselves and the country. They should never be given the consolation that their life-style will improve amidst deprivation.
4. The backward classes, scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, who have been predominantly left behind in the last few decades from being part of the economic growth or ‘India Shining’ and ‘Incredible India’ have to be educated and encouraged to move out off the frog well to harness growth of civilization with minor disturbances and dislocations. They should be educated, motivated and encouraged to move to towns and cities to take up better and well-earning professions with a dignified life. This is a sever diversion from the earlier concepts by the renowned thinkers of developing countries but this has to be adopted to avoid future catastrophes.
5. The Indian intelligentsia is still busy finding the strategy to bring down the scale of perpetuating rural migrations to big towns and cities in search of job opportunities which I believe is in total contradiction to the need of a developed society. We need to learn first and educate the others about the significant statistical changes which are taking place overthe last few decades. People must move out from village or smaller cities to the big cities. People must move to special economic zones (SEZ). Government must improve building infrastructure to support these movements. More planned SEZ is the need of the future.
6. IT and BPOs together earned India $12 Billion in 2003 and by 2012, it is expected to touch $148 Billion according to NASSCOM– National Associations of Software and Services Company. The number of people employed in the BPO sector will be over 200,000. This manpower will be available when the people move from conventional professions to value added services.
7. There is a tremendous scarcity of educated and semi-educated person in service sectors like call centres, BPOs, software sectors, R & Ds, manufacturing plants, etc. The recruiter needs to move to small towns and villages to appoint and train the poor, dedicated, sincere and hard working people for the benefit of this sector, irrespective of caste, creed or region.
8. The area where exploitation has been severe and no priorities have been given for growth, are more prone to attract the attention and demand of the new industries. Either resettlement plans in those neglected areas could be considered or people can be encouraged to move to planned colonies for better amenities and better work output for systematic growth.
9. In the last few decades, there are locations in India which have witnessed tremendous neglect from the planner to take care of the basic infrastructure like road, electricity and water etc. These are Northeast region, Bengal, Bihar, Orissa and Jammu & Kashmir. The situation is ripe enough to utilize for systematic growth of the new sectors. These areas have to be considered for future growth.
10. In the years to come, a large population will move from these neglected areas as mentioned above for a better life in Delhi, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Chennai etc. These movements will accrue many benefits for those neglected areas. They will reduce the burden on the land. The people who move out will get a better life. The remaining people will have more land to feed fewer stomachs. However, due to enhanced economical changes they will have to have a more sophisticated and systematic life. They will have to understand these changes and mould themselves accordingly. They will perforce have to unlearn all habits of so-called poor people.
11. The availability of basic amenities will broaden the living standards of large sections of the population. They will unlearn things faster to have a better and more dignified life.

Since the time, President of India APJ Abdul Kalam has talked and worked on PURA, I have my own predictions that these policies do not have future. These are the waste of government resources. We have to educate the people from village to move to cities to have a better and prosperous life. One side when President talks about big dreams on the other, he works on PURA to keep the poor deprived for life. Instead, government should join hands with private sectors to build a Special Economics Zones (SEZs) with basic infrastructure and employment opportunities for all.

The technological evolution will bring about the changes smoothly. The change practice has to be mastered by the population to harness the benefits of technology. There is a necessity of new thinking and ideas. Ideas should not be slaves of caste, region or religion. Ideas should not be the result of political compulsions. The ideas should not be the result of a selfish attitude. Ideas need to be rational, based on future prospects.